Beyond the Headlines

What will happen in the Middle East under president-elect Trump?

Four years after his first term, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th US president, marking his second inauguration as one of America’s most unpredictable leaders.

 

An ocean away in the Middle East, where war, regime changes and power shifts have altered the political landscape forever, all eyes will be on the new president to see how he will shape his foreign policy in the region.

 

Mr Trump walks into office with a Gaza ceasefire already in effect, earning him a great deal of credibility with both Arab Americans and Arabs abroad. Outgoing president Joe Biden and his Democratic party leave the White House with an unfavorable legacy in the eyes of many Arabs around the world, who had pinned their hopes on Mr Biden taking a more supportive approach to Palestinians. And now many are now choosing to invest their trust in Mr Trump instead.

 

But there are still many questions about how the new president will balance foreign policy in the Middle East with America-first positions, and even his own personal business interests. On this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher discusses Mr Trump’s role in the region with former US ambassador Douglas Silliman, president of the Arab Gulf States Institute, and Hala Rharrit, an American diplomat who resigned from the state department over Mr Biden’s policy in Gaza.

Will the fighting really end in Gaza?

Cheers echoed through the streets of Gaza on Wednesday night, even before a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was finally announced. Much-needed respite appears to be in sight after 15 months of almost uninterrupted bombing, death and destruction.

 

But the jubilant reaction of Gazans stands in stark contrast to the bleak environment that surrounds them – their homes destroyed, their loved ones maimed, killed or missing and their livelihoods crushed. Gaza, as it once was, no longer exists.

 

Across the border, the families of Israeli hostages are also conflicted. They wait anxiously for their relatives to return, dead or alive, but are frustrated that not all of the captives in Gaza will be released under the terms of the agreement.

 

The details of the 42-day truce, announced on Wednesday by Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, include the return of a number of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for the release of Palestinian detainees from Israeli prisons. Israeli forces are expected to withdraw to border areas and humanitarian aid will start to flow into the enclave.

 

But the agreement does not come into effect until Sunday and, on Thursday morning, the ceasefire was plunged into doubt when Israel accused Hamas of creating a “last-minute crisis”. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said that would delay putting the deal to the security cabinet for approval.

 

Hamas refuted the claim and by Friday the agreement was back on track, after Mr Netanyahu said a hostage release deal was reached.

 

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher speaks to The National’s foreign correspondent Hamza Hendawi and Israeli former hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin. They discuss the fine print of the agreement and what comes after the initial truce.

Can HTS deliver for Syria?

An entire month has passed since Syria’s Bashar Al Assad was overthrown by rebel groups and much has happened since. Prison dungeons of the former regime were unlocked, freeing political prisoners held by Assad enforcers. Families torn apart by war were reunited. Refugees have begun to return home and commercial flights to and from Damascus have eventually resumed.

But there’s also much anxiety over what comes next as Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) takes charge as the de facto temporary power. Its leader Ahmed Al Shara and his newly appointed interim government have no shortage of challenges ahead. How will they dissolve all of Syria’s armed factions, run essential services and pave the way for accountability and justice?

At the same time, there are already concerns that the caretaker government may be overstepping its mandate and making institutional changes that it should not be making until a constitution is drafted and free elections are held, but this could take years.

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher speaks to Mutasem Syoufi, executive director of The Day After, and Rahaf Aldoughli, a lecturer in Middle East and North African studies at the UK's Lancaster University, to examine the decisions of the interim HTS authority as it navigates the transition towards a new Syria.

Why is the Palestinian Authority cracking down on Jenin?

On a tense Saturday night in Jenin in the occupied West Bank, Shatha Al Sabbagh went over to the grocery store with her mother, neighbour and nephews. On her way out, she was shot in the neck and killed. She was a young journalist, only 21 years old.

Her family has blamed her death on the Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces. But the PA rejects the accusation, saying instead that she was killed by militants in the area.

About a dozen people have died so far amid clashes in the Jenin refugee camp since PA security forces began a raid there last month that they say clamps down on outlaws with outstanding arrest warrants for murder, theft and other crimes.

But on the inside, another version of events comes to light. The PA’s crackdown has stirred anger among some of the residents who say authorities are trying to crush their so-called “Palestinian resistance”. The PA has dismissed this, telling The National that they are only targeting Iran-linked militants hiding under the umbrella of legitimate resistance.

Critics of the PA have been frustrated over its inaction as the war rages on in Gaza and Israeli military and settler violence rises across the West Bank. So why is the PA cracking down on Palestinians in their darkest hour?

On Beyond the Headlines this week, host Nada AlTaher looks back at how and why the raid on Jenin began a month ago. She speaks to Palestinian political analyst Khalil Sayegh and senior Palestine analyst at Crisis Group Tahani Mustafa, about who the PA is targeting and why now. They discuss how the events in Jenin will affect the PA’s role in the West Bank and its survival in a future Palestinian state.

After a year of conflict, could 2025 be the year of resolution in the Middle East?

There’s no doubt that the events of 2024 have changed the Middle East. Israel’s continued war in Gaza has caused a ripple effect across the region. Multi-front conflicts over the past year have stoked the rise and fall of non-state actors backed by Iran.

The geopolitical impacts of this are already starting to materialise, some concerning and others promising. The question of Palestine – unresolved for decades – has become an international priority as more countries recognise it officially as a state. In Lebanon and Syria, power dynamics are shifting after the weakening of Hezbollah and the fall of president Bashar Al Assad. At the same time, Israel is seizing territories across its border in unprecedented land grabs. And Iran’s role in the region has arrived at a critical crossroads as its proxy project begins to falter.

For the millions in the Arab world, a sense of apprehension is overshadowed only by the extreme fatigue of bearing witness to unbearable human suffering. But there’s also hope, dim as it may be, as talks inch closer to a ceasefire in Gaza.

In the last episode of Beyond the Headlines this year, host Nada AlTaher speaks to The National’s foreign editor Mohamad Ali Harisi to reflect on the most significant events in the Middle East that defined 2024 and how they might shape the region in 2025.

Palestine and pressure on campus: Academics say they are disciplined for anti-war speech

When Dr Mohamed Abdou joined Columbia University, he was thrilled to be in the company of renowned scholars of the Middle East. What he did not expect was that he would learn of what Columbia called his termination through a congressional hearing broadcast on live TV, only a few months later.

Now, he is suing Columbia University and its former president – and his case is not isolated. Dr Abdou is among several professors and faculty at various universities across the US who say they have faced disciplinary action for their stance on Palestine. One legal aid group focusing on cases related to Palestine activism told The National it has received nearly 3,000 requests related to the suppression of Palestinian rights advocacy on campuses across the US since October 7 last year.

On this episode of Beyond the Headlines, we are peering into a lingering remnant of anti-war protests that shook college campuses in the US and around the world last spring.

What is next for Syria and the region after Assad?

Syria's Bashar Al Assad has fled the country after rebels took over Damascus.

Prisoners who had been kept in the dark for decades were finally freed from notorious and brutal jails. People were reunited with loved ones who had disappeared years ago. Syrian embassies around the world raised what were once opposition flags. And officials close to Assad made their first public criticisms of his rule.

Now, the future of the country is at stake. And because of long-held international interests in Syria’s political assets – Iran in the Assad regime, Turkey in Kurdish strongholds, the US in ISIS positions. Israel on the border – all eyes are on how Hayat Tahrir Al Sham is going to handle this delicate moment in its history.

In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks at what’s next in Syria after Assad, and how this will impact the Middle East as the balances of power shift, featuring views from Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, and Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel.

How will the power balance in Syria shift?

Renewed fighting in Syria has ended a period of relative calm in the country after rebel groups launched a surprise offensive last week and took over the country's second biggest city, Aleppo.

Syrian government forces also said they had withdrawn on Thursday from Hama, a strategic city with supply lines to loyalist coastal strongholds.

Led by the militant group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the rebels took only about two days to seize Aleppo. Syrian government and Russian jets carried out counterstrikes soon after, bombing the rebel-held city of Idlib in the north-west of the country.

Syria’s civil war started in 2011 after protests against President Bashar Al Assad’s rule were met with a brutal crackdown, turning into a bloody war since then. Vast areas of the country were eventually reclaimed by the government, including until last week Aleppo. Much of the north-west fell under the hold of various rebel groups, including Hayat Tahrir.

In 2020 a truce was brokered by Turkey and Russia bringing the fighting to a standstill but this fragile status quo has now been broken. The timing, the scale and the speed of the offensive have sent shockwaves across the region. With so many international actors also involved in the conflict - Russia, Iran and Turkey to name a few - many questions loom over what this rebellion means and what will happen next.

Host Nada AlTaher speaks to The National’s Turkey-based correspondent Lizzie Porter, and to Orwa Ajjoub, Syria researcher and PhD candidate at Malmo University. They discuss how the latest events could change dynamics on the ground.

Will the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah stick?

Lebanon celebrated a rare moment of joy as displaced families began to return to their homes after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday. The people breathed a sigh of relief – for now.

Almost 4.000 people have been killed in Israel’s war in Lebanon and about 1.2 million displaced. Entire villages have been wiped off the map.

After Hamas launched its deadly October 7 attack last year, prompting a devastating military response by Israel on Gaza, Lebanon’s Hezbollah engaged in the fighting almost immediately. It began launching rockets towards Israel, igniting an exchange of fire across their shared border.

The world warned against allowing the war in Gaza to spill over into the rest of the region, but that's what happened. Israel launched a ground invasion into Lebanon in late September and carried out a devastating bombing campaign. The war seemed to have no clear end in sight – until now.

A US-brokered deal came through at the last minute on Tuesday evening, amid heavy Israeli bombardment across Beirut. It maps out the terms of a 60-day truce that is designed to become a permanent ceasefire. The question is, will it last?

In this episode of Beyond The Headlines, host Nada AlTaher examines how the terms of the agreement will translate on the ground and whether the deal could lead to a ceasefire in Gaza. We hear from The National’s foreign editor Mohamad Ali Harisi and from David Wood, senior analyst for Lebanon at the Crisis Group.

The lingering impact of mass displacement in Lebanon

More than 3,500 people have been killed in Lebanon since last October, with Israel intensifying its attacks since September, launching a ground invasion into the country and an air strike campaign that has caused much destruction. Its bombings have become more unpredictable in scale and location, forcing masses to flee their homes.

 

More than 1.2 million people have been displaced since Israel escalated its war. Several hundred thousand, many of them already refugees, have fled across the border to Syria despite the risks they face there.

 

The spillover war from Gaza is wreaking havoc on a population that had already been grappling with years of economic and political turmoil. The Lebanese state’s resources are far too strained to cope with the scale of displacement and there are not nearly enough organised shelters. For vulnerable minorities in the country, including Syrian refugees and migrant workers, the conditions are even more challenging.

 

Israel says it is attacking Hezbollah, but its campaign has provoked widespread international condemnation because of the high civilian toll. This week, US envoy Amos Hochstein is in the Middle East in an attempt to broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. That cannot come soon enough for the hundreds of thousands of displaced people. But what would those who have lost their homes and their livelihoods return to?

 

This week on Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks at the deepening displacement crisis in Lebanon and its impact on the future of the country and its people. She speaks to the head of the International Organisation for Migration in Lebanon, Mathieu Luciano, and Prof Mona Fawaz from the American University of Beirut.