Beyond the Headlines

What happens to the Middle East if Tehran falls?

Up until last week, it seemed unthinkable for a UN member state to strike a nuclear site. But Israel did just that when it launched its attack on Iran, hitting military and atomic sites, and killing key figures of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

It also seemed unthinkable for missiles to penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome and destroy infrastructure in cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv.

Yet again, civilians are paying the heaviest price. More than 240 people have been killed in Iran so far. In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed in retaliatory strikes. One week on, the war shows no signs of abating, with the US hinting it might get involved, too.

A sense of unease has gripped the region, with neighbouring states fearing further escalation. A group of 20 countries including Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt has called for an end to hostilities. In a worst-case scenario, the repercussions could be catastrophic for them, too.

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks at the consequences of the war on the Middle East and asks what will happen to the region if Tehran were to fall? She speaks to Hasan AlHasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and Thomas Juneau, Middle East researcher and a professor at University of Ottawa, Canada.

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Iran and Israel: What's next?

Canada, urging de-escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, but US President Donald Trump has already left, having warned that residents of Tehran "should immediately evacuate".

Iran's reaction is one of the key issues on the agenda today.

In this special episode of Beyond the Headlines, Geo-Economics Editor Manus Cranny asks Mina Al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief, and Mohamad Ali Harisi, Foreign Editor, for the inside view.

Who are the Abu Shabab armed militia that Israel is backing in Gaza?

In unusual public statement last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu admitted “activating” Palestinian militias in Gaza. Acting on the advice of security officials, he said, it was a way to weaken Hamas and protect Israeli soldiers.

The admission came after Israeli media reported that Mr Netanyahu had authorised the arming of a militia, known as the Abu Shabab Popular Forces, in the southern Gaza Strip. The group is named after its leader, Yasser Abu Shabab.

Now, Hamas has a new rival amid its battle with Israel. Hamas fighters have retaliated at the gang and claimed to have killed dozens from its small-but-growing ranks. It is believed that there are only 300 men serving Abu Shabab but sources told The National they are armed with assault rifles and are equipped with walkie-talkies and night-vision goggles. Among them are men with criminal records and links to ISIS.

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher speaks to experts about the origins of Abu Shabab, why the group is surfacing now and how Israel is backing it. She is joined by Muhammad Shehada, a visiting fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relation’s Mena programme, and Michael Milshtein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.

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Will Europe’s shift on Israel’s war in Gaza change anything?

Too little, too late. This was the sentiment echoed among critics in the international community after Europe started taking a new, critical stance on Israel’s war in Gaza in recent weeks. For Palestinians actually in the strip, it is certainly too late, with the death toll from 19 months of war at more than 54,200.

But what of the new stance itself? In late May, the EU announced it would launch a review of its relations with Israel. The move was backed by 17 of 27 states and could lead to a suspension in whole or in part of the EU-Israel agreement, the legal framework that governs their bilateral economic co-operation.

In Germany, new Chancellor Friedrich Merz questioned the future of arms sales to Israel; in France, President Emmanuel Macron has been rallying global support to recognise Palestinian statehood; and in the UK, the government issued sanctions against several illegal Israeli settlers and paused trade negotiations.

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks at the motives and timing of Europe’s shifting position on Gaza and asks whether these measures will make any difference to the war. We hear from former German ambassador Heinrich Kreft and Hugh Lovatt, senior Mena policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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Can Israel be trusted to distribute aid in Gaza?

Chaotic scenes unfolded in Gaza this week as large crowds gathered at aid hubs set up by a US and Israeli-backed organisation, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. After three months of an Israeli-imposed blockade on the enclave, hungry, desperate Palestinians stood behind fences, waiting to receive their share.

Reports and videos quickly emerged showing people overrunning a hub in Rafah, the southernmost part of Gaza. At least four people died on the first day and dozens were injured, mostly by Israeli gunfire. The Israeli army said it fired warning shots in the area outside the compound.

Within two days, the foundation had temporarily paused its operations.

The organisation has been heavily criticised by the UN and other humanitarian agencies for what they say is a weaponisation of aid that breaches their principles of neutrality and impartiality. Israel says the new mechanism will stop the looting of supplies by Hamas, but critics fear it will be used discriminately to deny aid to certain people.

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks at the efficacy and ethics of aid distribution by a party to the conflict and asks, what happens if this is the only option for Palestinians in Gaza? She speaks to UNRWA’s external relations and communications director Tamara Alrifai, international human rights lawyer Saul Takahashi and Knesset member Ofer Cassif.

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Sanctions are easing but can Syria hold together?

Last week’s announcement by President Donald Trump on lifting US sanctions on Syria seemed to have a refreshing effect for a country that has been reeling from political divisions and economic turmoil. This week, the European Union followed, lifting all economic restrictions in a major diplomatic shift aimed at supporting Syria’s reconstruction and fragile peace.

The news has been accompanied by more breakthroughs: the World Bank cleared Syria’s $15.5 million debt, paid off by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

On the ground, the interim government led by President Ahmed Al Shara, a former HTS leader, is scrambling to unify rebel factions, “eradicate” remnants of ISIS, and bring the country under one flag.

The challenges are far from over. Sectarian violence continues to plague minority communities, some Kurdish groups are demanding autonomy, and Israeli airstrikes persist along the southern border. Al Shara, once designated a terrorist by the West, is now lobbying for international legitimacy.

So what does the lifting of sanctions really mean? And can Syria be unified?

In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks at the significance of the US and European decisions and the challenges faced by the Syrian leader in his efforts to unite the country.

Will Middle East tension ease as a result of Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf?

US President Donald Trump has returned to Washington after sealing hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of investments on his first visit to the Gulf since returning to office.

His stops in Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi were marked by the announcements of huge deals encompassing everything from defence and aviation to chips and energy.

But it wasn’t all business. Mr Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria and meet interim president Ahmad Al Shara in Riyadh came as a surprise. The US leader also re-emphasised his desire to secure a nuclear deal with Iran and acknowledged the support of Gulf states.

Still, much was left to the imagination. How quickly could a nuclear agreement materialise? Are mediators any closer to a Gaza ceasefire? And what has become of the push for Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalise relations?

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher speaks to analysts about the significance of Mr Trump's Gulf tour, the regional partnerships and influential role of Gulf states when it comes to American foreign policy. 

What’s at risk under Israel’s planned Gaza offensive?

Israel’s security cabinet has approved an expanded military offensive in Gaza that would push the entire population into a small pocket in the south of the strip.

Shortly after the decision, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a bold message: the troops will be there to stay.

Sources have told The National the plan will pave the way for Israel to seize the Gaza Strip and take control of aid in zones run by private security firms. The goal, Israel says, is to pressure the majority of Gazans to be pushed out of the enclave entirely.

Governments around the world, including some western allies of Israel, have opposed the plan, saying it would breach humanitarian law. UN agencies and aid groups have also strongly rejected the scheme, saying they will refuse to comply. Meanwhile, Palestinians in Gaza fear they will be forced to flee their homes again, or worse.

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher explores what makes this offensive especially alarming, even in the context of a brutal 19-month war. She looks at the impact it could have on humanitarian aid systems and why it may breach international law. She speaks to Ahmed Bayram, communications adviser for NRC Middle East, and international lawyer Saul Takahashi.

Trump’s first 100 days: What ‘America first’ means for the Middle East

During the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s administration, he has signed more executive orders than any other president in the same time span.

They are part of his mandate to put "America first". But many of his foreign policy orders have also had a direct and immediate impact on the Middle East.

He has frozen foreign aid, hitting countries like Egypt and Jordan that rely on US assistance. He has disrupted the admission of refugees into the US. He has imposed major tariffs on trading partners, with additional levies on Syria, Israel, Iraq and other Middle East countries.

At the same time, we've seen efforts by the Trump administration and Arab countries, including Gulf states, to pursue new economic partnerships. Negotiations for a nuclear deal with Iran are also bringing a glimmer of hope.

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks back at Mr Trump’s first 100 days in office to understand where his priorities lie in the Middle East and how his policies will shape the region. She speaks to Steven A Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and to Mohamad Bazzi, director of the Hagop Kevorkian Centre for Near Eastern Studies at New York University.

Why Christians in occupied Palestine may be at risk of disappearing

In his last public address on Easter Sunday, Pope Francis called for an end to the violence in Gaza, calling the humanitarian situation there "dramatic and deplorable”.

His message came only a day before his death. People all over the world mourned the death of the beloved Pontiff, but perhaps no place more than in Gaza, where Palestinian Christians fear they have lost a protector of their community.

Already a dwindling minority, Christians in the strip have also been killed, injured and displaced in the war. Only about half of the 1000 or so Christians remain, with many forced to flee.

Members of the community say they are now concerned that Gaza’s Christians are at risk of disappearing.

The same fear is echoed in the West Bank and Jerusalem where followers of the faith have faced increasingly aggressive attacks and restrictions, including this past Easter. Members of the community have reported a rise in settler attacks against clergy and say Israeli policies are taking a toll on the rapidly shrinking Christian minority of Palestinians.

Host Nada AlTaher speaks to Mitri Raheb, a Palestinian pastor and founder of Dar Al-Kalima University in Bethlehem, and to Palestinian political analyst, Khalil Sayegh, himself a Christian from Gaza.